Brexit Agreement - more like damage limitation!

 

It not a question of who wins – it is question of damage limitation for both the UK and EU. Both parties will lose benefits.

For copies of the Agreement and further analysis CLICK HERE

We are out of the European Union and I hope we can now start repairing all the damage which has been done to our trading and social relationship with our partners in Europe over the last 4 years but it not a question of who wins – it is question of damage limitation for both the UK and EU. Both parties will lose benefits.

Hopefully, we can now move away from isolationism and division and start working with people rather than against them. Hopefully we can concentrate on building a global sustainable economy meeting the climate change challenge where peace, humanity and the health of communities are given high priority.

This whole Brexit business extending over the last 4 years has been a massively unnecessary interruption to successful business and commerce as well as to peace, security, stability, and the development of a sustainable future. We need to prioritise the conservation of our environment working towards the elimination of greenhouse gases in the planet's atmosphere. The people of the United Kingdom had to vote in a referendum whilst they were being assailed by false statements extolling the benefits of leaving the European Union. The UK Government has seemingly conveniently forgotten all of the mistruths that were put out in 2016.

And why are we leaving the UK's biggest economic partner in the world? Nobody from this UK Brexit Government or the Leave Campaign are repeating the lies which were put out in 2016, – no, they are saying it is all because we need our 'sovereignty' back! Effectively this means that the UK Parliament will now make the decisions about what's good for Britain. But that's a worry in itself. Our Parliamentary voting system is archaic with its First Past the Post voting system. Basically, this means a single party can 'win' an election without the majority of voters supporting them. In the last election in 2019 the Conservatives got 43.6% of the votes but won 56% of the seats. That 13% difference means to say that whatever a small bunch of Tories think (the Cabinet) will effectively be how we are governed in this country. That doesn't make me feel very comfortable. I would rather have the checks and balances of the EU where our ministers jointly make decisions with the rest of the EU ministers, where our European members of Parliament jointly make decisions with elected MPs from all over Europe. I would rather have stable five-year expenditure and environmental programmes based on the precautionary principle rather than the chaotic piecemeal decision which often comes out from Downing Street.

Still, we are where we are and in large part UK business will be able to trade free of tariffs with the EU countries. However, they will have the problem of producing more documentation to export their goods. In the service industry there is still much to be done as the agreement hasn't concluded any details. It seems crazy that the UK government hasn't treated this major export market as a priority. In 2019, the UK’s single largest service export to the EU was “other business services”, valued at £41 billion; this represented 33% of all UK service exports to the EU. Other British service exports to the EU included financial services, valued at £26 billion (21% of service exports to the EU). Combined with other business services, these two categories made up just over half of all UK service exports to the EU!

But beyond this there are real worries as to the logic of the UK government in coming out of the European Arrest Warrant and leaving Interpol. Why? We also leave the Erasmus University exchange student system. Why? It was a great system to help our students not only get the best education but understand how things are done in other countries. If it was good enough for the monks of the Middle Ages why isn't it good enough for our young people in the UK?

The UK loses the freedom of movement so it will no longer be possible to easily go work in another country in Europe. Many businesses are international, and the freedom of a movement principle helps them as well as helping the individual get the best job for them and their family. Our UK government have abandoned the concept of equivalency in professional services. For example, it will no longer be possible for nurses and doctors to have their qualifications automatically recognised in Europe and vice versa.

As we move into this new era, I think the gaps caused by our exit from the EU will need constant attention and will lead to difficulties for our businesses and workers. A disaster has been averted but that doesn't mean to say this Agreement can replace all the benefits we had by being part of the European project. Our departure from the EU is a win for people like Putin but it's not a win for the people of the United Kingdom.

 

What a Brexit & Covid mess the UK is in!

 

The Muppets in the UK government should have separated out tackling Covid from the Brexit negotiations ages ago. It looks as though Boris and his right wing Brexiteer Tories have now got into a right mess with the mutation of the Covid virus whilst they intend going right to the wire on the Brexit negotiations. The recent closing of the border with France and other countries has shown how idiotic it is to tackle both of these issues at the same time. It looks like chaos in Kent at the moment. 

 

The problem is you can't trust Boris & Co. Even if they made an agreement, I believe they would renege on it later on. Worse still - we have to put up with Boris for 4 more years! 

Sadly, because of the way things work in the UK there is not due to be an election for another 4 years. And even then, with the First Past the Post system we are unlikely to see a change in government. Boris has already used the Boundary Commission (made up of his Tory mates?) to gerrymander the constituencies in any future election reducing the chances of labour or Liberals getting elected. See Guardian article: UK government accused of 'power grab' over redrawing of boundaries. 

I believe the British government (if they can be trusted) have agreed to preserve arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Eire. Hopefully this will protect the Good Friday agreement.  Subject to this proviso I would conclude the following: 

Perhaps Boris and his mates need to be taught a lesson and for the people in the UK to understand exactly what it's like to be outside the EU and suffer from the trade and administrative barriers. The 43% of people that voted for the Conservatives need to understand what they voted for in 2019. I feel many of them now might not want the Conservative party in its present form. I also understand that recent polls have shown that the majority of people in the UK want to stay in the European Union or at least have some form of close trading partnership. A recent UK of poll published in the Financial Times shows that now the tables are turned now: 53% of the UK population wish to remain in the EU. That's a 5% change from 2016 when the population was voting on the lies put out by Boris and the Leave Campaign. Indeed, the Leave Campaign were even found guilty but the penalties were not enough to rerun the referendum. Sad.

Exiting the EU and migration

There is no hiding it, migration to the UK has been a big issue in the recent referendum. The UK has experienced inward migration over thousands of years. With world population growth and the effects of Britain’s empire the UK has experienced various periods of inward migration since World War II. In recent years there has been a fragmentation in the Conservative Party on immigration issues. Over and above this, UKIP has become a stronger influence in politics. All of this has led to a negative attitude towards immigrants and what some British people call ‘foreigners.’ 

The problems of the war in Syria and the mass migration of its victims have brought an added strain to the wealthy countries of Europe and on the EU. Is that a reason for destroying the EU? I think not. It is even more reason for the countries of Europe to work more closely together and tackle the problems outside its borders. Sadly, by a small margin, the people of the UK have chosen to ignore these challenges , but they won’t go away.

Misinformation in the UK EU Referendum campaigning

There has been much misinformation banded around about the effect of migration on the UK, especially where that migration is coming from. There has been an assumption in the information put out by the Brexit campaign that by leaving the EU we will somehow solve the immigration ‘crisis’ as they put it. 

Yes, net migration to the UK is high, and in the last year (updated including Q1 2016), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that net migration to UK reached record 335,600. The UK Financial Times reports that this is the highest level since the early 1990s:

click image to got to the FT graph

Migration from outside the EU is 50% of the total

It appears that the Brexit campaigners did not explain to the public in the EU referendum campaign that the actual number of migrants coming from the EU is about 50% of this total:

The above figures are for 2015 , and they show:

EU Migrants EU	184,000
Non-EU migrants	188,000
Subtotal	372,000
Less British emigration	-39,000
Net  total figures as of December 2015	333,000

The Brexiters have instilled fear in people’s minds in the UK that hordes of people are migrating from eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania. So far, the figures do not support this. The two countries that UKIP were most concerned about were Bulgaria and Romania. However they do not show up as the highest number of migrants to the UK. They come under the 'EU2' classification in the above table and make up 58,000 of the total EU migrants in 2015. 

Brexiters have no 'solution' for immigrants from outside the EU

With the UK, leaving the EU it has been assumed that the EU migration of 184,000 will cease. Perhaps the UK government will operate a work permit system for those people from Europe. We will have to wait and see. However, no one has put forward a solution as to how the 188,000 people from outside the EU will be prevented from coming here. As the office of National statistics mention in their latest report -many of these people do not arrive in the UK from the EU overland in Europe, but arrive by air from destinations in the Far East and Africa and North America.  Click here to go to the ONS report

UK unemployment is low

A fear has been installed in the minds of many people in the UK that immigrants are coming to the UK and not working and just claiming benefits. This claim does not seem to be borne out by the facts of the matter. The UK has currently about 5% unemployment overall. If the migrants coming here over the years were just simply here to claim benefits this figure would be much higher. Here is an ONS summary of the situation:

Ignoring the world problem

All this upset in Europe and for the UK has been mainly caused by the issue of migration, but it isn’t going to go away by the UK bringing up the drawbridge on Europe. World population is on the rise exponentially and one of the effects of population increase is that people will migrate to the safest, the most stable and the most economically beneficial country to ensure that they and their family survive. This has been so all through history and in the case of the UK. It’s been going on ever since the Beaker people came to the UK over 4000 years ago!

The current world population of 7.3 billion is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new UN DESA report, “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.”

We can't just ignore this fact. The UK can't separate itself off from the rest of the world's problems. One way or the other, they will affect us. It is my belief that the UK should be outward looking and join with other nations and attempt to tackle the problems so that there is a future for our children and grandchildren. 

In 2011, David Attenborough gave a lecture to the Royal Society in London. I paraphrase his comments about world population growth. He said that 50 years ago the world population was about 3 billion and today it has risen to 7 billion. I recommend watching all of his talk but if you only have a few minutes to spare see the short section from 6 min 10 sec in. See: http://www.populationmatters.org/attenborough-talk/  or click the link to YouTube below: 

So where do we go from here?

I hope the UK politicians will stop giving out misinformation and will work with other leaders in Europe and globally to end warfare, terrorism and strife, and at the same time begin to build safe and economically stable countries whilst tackling the world population crisis. If we don't do this, the problems of migration will increase and the pressure on first world countries will just become greater and greater.  

EU - Future Options

The UK Government should be negotiating the best terms for the UK from within the EU, not causing divisions in our country by wasting a lot of time arguing the case for 'in' or 'out'. 

The Africa - EU Partnership
- a dialogue & programme

The UK government should be using it's ministerial efforts to tackle the major international issues caused by the conflict in Syria and by the terrorism in Africa. 

The EU members need to work together and with other countries to better manage the migrant crisis. 

Nations need to work together to bring peace to Syria.
More work needs to be undertaken following on from the summit held in Malta on the migration crisis.



However, we are where we are so let us try and bring some clear thinking to the issue. Here are 2 articles - one by the Financial Times & the other by Investment managers, Hargreaves Lansdown and a summary of scenarios for the UK if they leave the EU: 

The fatal flaw in the case for Brexit

Brexit - What could an EU exit mean for your investments?

Extracts from the the HL article: 

Brexit scenarios

It is often assumed that in the event of Brexit, the UK could choose to be like Norway, Switzerland or Turkey; in Europe but not in the EU. However, these countries have never been in the EU - there is no historical precedent for a country leaving.

European Economic Area
The Norway option. The EEA is a free trade area comprising the EU, Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland.
Pros: Direct contribution to the EU would fall by around 17%. 
Cons: UK would still be subject to EU regulations but would lose its seat at the negotiating table.

European Free Trade Association
The Switzerland option. As above but EFTA also includes Switzerland. 
Pros: not subject to EU regulations, budget contribution falls by c.60%. 
Cons: would need to negotiate bilateral agreements to access the single market in specific sectors.

Customs union
The Turkey option.
Pros: retain some benefits of membership, mostly with respect to trade in goods.
Cons: outside the single market, with a very severe impact on services sector.

There are many other options – the UK could set up its own free trade agreements with the EU and other nations, or simply rely on the World Trade Organisation’s ‘most favoured nation’ status, under which it would be free to set its own terms of trade.

Cost of membership? 

The cost of membership is one argument for leaving the EU but would the UK loose out on some of the benefits which the CBI estimate to be between  £62bn and £78bn annually. Click on this image to go to the HL article: 

The Eastleigh By-election

It is worrying that UKIP had such a strong performance. We in the UK are mistakenly fixating on blaming Europe for all our problems. Sadly, many in the UK have been negative about Europe for nearly 100 years!, - since WWI. My grandfather, as a stone mason, came to England from Germany, in 1879 and worked on some of the great buildings of London, including, Tower Bridge, The Houses of Parliament & the V&A Museum. His four sons fought in the British Army in WWI, for peace in Europe. My father (who served in the Army in Hong Kong & was captured)  fought for world peace in WWII. Europe is about keeping the peace, building strong economies & democracies in a complicated world. By working together, we in Europe can continue working for peace beyond Bosnia into Mali, Afghanistan, Syria; whilst building strong economies & trade within and beyond the EU. The UK, standing on its own cannot hope to deal with these issues. Shakespeare's image of England …….. “This precious stone set in the silver sea” may have been right for the Royal Court of Queen Elizabeth I but today isolationism would mean that the UK would become an irrelevant island if UKIP had their way.