Sunday 22 November 2015

EU - Future Options


The UK Government should be negotiating the best terms for the UK from within the EU, not causing divisions in our country by wasting a lot of time arguing the case for 'in' or 'out'. 


The Africa - EU Partnership
- a dialogue & programme
The UK government should be using it's ministerial efforts to tackle the major international issues caused by the conflict in Syria and by the terrorism in Africa. 

The EU members need to work together and with other countries to better manage the migrant crisis. 

Nations need to work together to bring peace to Syria.
More work needs to be undertaken following on from the summit held in Malta on the migration crisis.



However, we are where we are so let us try and bring some clear thinking to the issue. Here are 2 articles - one by the Financial Times & the other by Investment managers, Hargreaves Lansdown and a summary of scenarios for the UK if they leave the EU: 


The fatal flaw in the case for Brexit



Brexit - What could an EU exit mean for your investments?


Extracts from the the HL article: 

Brexit scenarios

It is often assumed that in the event of Brexit, the UK could choose to be like Norway, Switzerland or Turkey; in Europe but not in the EU. However, these countries have never been in the EU - there is no historical precedent for a country leaving.
European Economic Area
The Norway option. The EEA is a free trade area comprising the EU, Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland.
Pros: Direct contribution to the EU would fall by around 17%. 
Cons: UK would still be subject to EU regulations but would lose its seat at the negotiating table.
European Free Trade Association
The Switzerland option. As above but EFTA also includes Switzerland. 
Pros: not subject to EU regulations, budget contribution falls by c.60%. 
Cons: would need to negotiate bilateral agreements to access the single market in specific sectors.
Customs union
The Turkey option.
Pros: retain some benefits of membership, mostly with respect to trade in goods.
Cons: outside the single market, with a very severe impact on services sector.
There are many other options – the UK could set up its own free trade agreements with the EU and other nations, or simply rely on the World Trade Organisation’s ‘most favoured nation’ status, under which it would be free to set its own terms of trade.

Cost of membership? 

The cost of membership is one argument for leaving the EU but would the UK loose out on some of the benefits which the CBI estimate to be between  £62bn and £78bn annually. Click on this image to go to the HL article: